Body weight in adolescence and long-term risk of early heart failure in adulthood among men in Sweden

Aims To study the relation between body mass index (BMI) in young men and risk of early hospitalization with heart failure. Methods and results In a prospective cohort study, men from the Swedish Conscript Registry investigated 1968-2005 (n = 1 610 437; mean age, 18.6 years were followed 5-42 years (median, 23.0 years; interquartile range, 15.0-32.0), 5492 first hospitalizations for heart failure occurred (mean age at diagnosis, 46.6 (SD 8.0) years). Compared with men with a body mass index (BMI) of 18.5-20.0 kg/m2, men with a BMI 20.0-22.5 kg/m2 had an hazard ratio (HR) of 1.22 (95% CI, 1.10-1.35), after adjustment for age, year of conscription, comorbidities at baseline, parental education, blood pressure, IQ, muscle strength, and fitness. The risk rose incrementally with increasing BMI such that men with a BMI of 30-35 kg/m2 had an adjusted HR of 6.47 (95% CI, 5.39-7.77) and those with a BMI of ≥35 kg/m2 had an HR of 9.21 (95% CI, 6.57-12.92). The multiple-adjusted risk of heart failure per 1 unit increase in BMI ranged from 1.06 (95% CI, 1.02-1.11) in heart failure associated with valvular disease to 1.20 (95% CI, 1.18-1.22) for cases associated with coronary heart disease, diabetes, or hypertension. Conclusion We found a steeply rising risk of early heart failure detectable already at a normal body weight, increasing nearly 10-fold in the highest weight category. Given the current obesity epidemic, heart failure in the young may increase substantially in the future and physicians need to be aware of this.